麦肯锡 全球新冠发展趋势研究

CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY Any use of this material without specific permission of McKinsey and Company is strictly prohibited Updated February 28, 2020 Coronavirus COVID-19 Facts and Insights Global Health Crisis Response DOCUMENT INTENDED TO PROVIDE INSIGHT AND BEST PRACTICES RATHER THAN SPECIFIC CLIENT ADVICE McKinsey and Company 3 cutive summary February 28, 2020 CURRENT AS OF FEBRUARY 28, 2020 1. Accounting for new case definition. Source World Health Organization Situation Reports, News reports, Internal McKinsey analysis COVID-19 passed an inflection point this week, with more new cases outside China than in China for the first time. New cases increased 4.5x outside China, while those in China decreased 3x1 compared to the previous week. However, China still reported more than 3,000 new cases, demonstrating that the epidemic is not over for them. The global surge reflects a new inflection point in this epidemic. Four major transmission compls i.e., China, East Asia, Middle East, Europe are now active, with the US at a tipping point. Governments globally are preparing for broader spread. Outside of China, deep economic connections and people movements within these compls will make it difficult to stop intra-complex transmission even as individual regions go under lockdown, there are likely to be continued instances of viral “leakage”. This likelihood is enhanced by the diseases inherent high transmissibility. Additional spread that creates new compls is being considered an inevitability by governments around the world. The U.S. CDC, for example, has set clear expectations that the virus will appear there with community transmission. Scenarios to consider BASE CASE SCENARIO Continued spread within established compls plus community transmission in new compls drives 0.3-0.7 reduction in 2020 global GDP growth China continues on its path to recovery, achieving a near-complete economic restart by mid-Q2 East Asia, Middle East, and Europe see continued case growth until early Q2. This drives each region to go under various s of lockdown e.g., self-imposed, company-imposed, mandated by local governments, in an attempt to stop or slow down the spread. The lockdown drives a sharp reduction in demand, which in turn drives lower economic growth that lasts through Q2 and early Q3. Demand recovery depends on whether case growth reduces as a result of seasonality, or if fatality levels are low enough, where the general public resumes daily activities Compls that have not yet seen sustained case growth e.g., Americas see localized transmission. Greater awareness of COVID-19, plus additional time to prepare, may help these compls manage case growth. However, compls with less robust health systems could see more general transmission, and bear the brunt of economic impact in early Q2 The impact on demand slows down growth of the global economy between 1.8-2.2 instead of the 2.5 growth envisioned at the start of the year. Sectors are impacted differently certain sectors e.g., aviation, tourism, hospitality see lower demand for a longer duration. For others e.g., consumer goods, demand is initially lower but expected to rebound quickly CONSERVATIVE SCENARIO COVID-19 sees generalized, global spread through 2020, resulting in a demand shock that lasts for most of the year. In this scenario, the virus would not show significant seasonal effects, or result in far higher transmissibility e.g., through asymptomatic transfer, before health systems can detect and react to it effectively at scale Companies are still assessing the full impact of disruptions as COVID-19 continues to spread. Companies with strong, centralized procurement teams and good supplier relationships are feeling more confident in the visibility to their suppliers at risk including tier 2/3, but many companies are still grappling with their exposure in China and other transmission compls. Given the relatively quick economic restart in China, many companies are focused more on temporary stabilization e.g., parts rationalization, demand plan updates driving new production/ SKU plans, booking logistic capacity, other, rather than alternative suppliers outside China. Companies are, however, making strategic, longer-term moves that they were considering with the COVID-19 outbreak as an accelerant Given the rapid spread, companies could consider the following actions Protect employees Follow the most conservative guidelines among leading global and local health authorities e.g., CDC, WHO. Communicate with employees frequently on decisions made, support any impacted employees per health guidance. Benchmark efforts in terms of workplace actions Stand-up a cross-functional, global COVID-19 response team Designate lead at the C-suite/CEO-1 level. Appoint 5 workstreams focused on a employees, b financial stress-testing and contingency plan, c supply chain, d customers; and e other relevant constituencies Protect customers Protect customers e.g., no penalties for cancellations, waiving fees; preserve customer loyalty e.g., premium discounts; pursue online strategy as means of outreach Stress-test financials and liquidity, and create contingency plan Model cash flow, P identify variable triggers that could drive significant liquidity events incl. breach of covenants. Identify critical operations, employees. Create pragmatic, trigger-based contingency plans. Conduct table-top rcises with top team . Maintain supply chain Define extent and timing of Tier 1 / 2 exposure. Pursue immediate stabilization e.g., critical parts rationing, pre-book freight capacity, plan for restart. Plan for how to manage a supply market with unusual spikes in demand, as supply comes back Demonstrate purpose Support epidemic efforts where possible McKinsey and Company 4 COVID-19 Latest epidemiological ination as of February 27, 2020 CURRENT AS OF FEBRUARY 27, 2020 1. Latest numbers are available from a number of sources, including daily situation reports from the World Health Organization 2. Evidence on exact numbers are emerging, however expected to decrease as viral containment measures intensify and treatments are developed 3. Case fatality numbers are reflective of the outbreak setting and depend on a number of factors, including patients age, community immunity, health system capabilities, etc. This graphic aims to offer a broad comparison. 4. Excluding cruise ship 5 In outbreak setting or at the beginning of the introduction of a new disease Source World Health Organization Low 4 D C G K I H B A E F J Case fatality ratio3 Proportion of deaths among confirmed cases Zika Chickenpox SARS-CoV COVID-19 Polio5 Measles5 Influenza 1918 Smallpox MERS-CoV Ebola West Africa 2014Influenza H1N1 2009 Influenza H2N2 1957 Medium 2-15 High 15Low 82,000 Deaths2,800 Countries affected47 Impact to date1 1.5-2x Higher transmission compared to the flu2 50 reported cases Global considerations Numbers of affected countries has risen significantly with 35 countries with new cases in the last 7 days Community transmission suspected in at least 18 countries, with 50 cases South Korea, Japan, Singapore, and Italy a number of cases are still under investigation to identify source of infection Oversight is intensifying in weaker health systems less capable of handling outbreak China outside Hubei Daily incremental case count remains low for the last 7 days; 11,000 African health workers and shipped 30,000 sets of personal protective equipment Europe Italy signed an order issuing a ban to leave or access affected areas, suspension of demonstration and all kinds of events, suspension of childcare and school education and quarantine for people in contact America USA implemented mandatory quarantine, airport screenings, partial travel restriction, repatriation flights from areas with substantial COVID-19 transmissions and stocked up on masks; general public announcement made on need for preparedness 80 of cases through community transmission 50-79 of cases through community transmission 20-49 of cases through community transmission 1-19 of cases through community transmission Reported cases, 0 through community transmission As the situation is evolving, we are learning more about the disease a number of unknowns remain Case fatality estimates1 Disease characteristics Asymptomatic infection rate Reproduction number Implications Transmissibility is expected to be less as outbreak evolves and cases are identified early - treatments / vaccines emerge High uncertainty surrounding asymptomatic infection rate due to missing data/evidence High rates of asymptomatic infections warrants additional measures beyond traditional screening Actual death ratio may be lower due to high number of unreported cases that are generally milder in symptoms Correct number important to estimate severity of COVID-19 Influenced by patient characteristics, countries preparedness and health system capacities 60 2 4 400 10 20 30 60 2 4 Calculations for countries with 50 cases based on reported cases and deaths Calculations from academic publications e.g., Nature, Imperial, NEJM, Lancet Reports from Cruise ship Calculations from academic publications e.g., Nature, Imperial, NEJM, Lancet Reports from Cruise ship CURRENT AS OF FEBRUARY 27, 2020 McKinsey and Company 6 Wuhan and Hubei continue to be deeply impacted The epicenter of the outbreak is facing emergency conditions and will need time to return to normalcy 1. Refers to reported cases using new confirmed case definition, including clinical feature and laboratory-confirmed, latest available ination available from a number of sources 2. As per Bloomberg, companies engaged in supply chain production 3. Latest update from 2/27/2020 Source Bloomberg, World Health Organization, Chinese press reports Humanitarian toll and economic impacts are high A large effort has been underway to regain control 3 but Wuhan and Hubei will need time to return to normalcy Health worker infections 1,700 New confirmed cases daily1 200 Individuals under quarantine 59M Continued shutdown of businesses in Hubei province2 March 10 46 designated hospitals 20,000 beds devoted to virus care Converted stadiums, office buildings, schools providing additional beds 30,000 medical staff from across China have come to Wuhan to provide support Infection rates remain high Hubei has had between 200-800 infections every day for the last 5 days far higher than 50-100 for the rest of China combined Fatality rates are more than 3 times higher in Hubei relative to the rest of China indicative of a stretched medical system and / or changing virus characteristics Once these measures are under control, Hubei will need time to lift the quarantine, disinfect and restart safely CURRENT AS OF FEBRUARY 27, 2020 McKinsey and Company 7 but February 24th represented an inflection point for COVID-19 Whereas case growth will still fluctuate, outside China exceeded in-China cases for the first time CURRENT AS OF FEBRUARY 27, 2020 Source Korean Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Yonhap News, Italian Government Law 23 February 2020, n. 6, Singaporean Ministry of Health, European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, World Health Organization World Health Organization Situation Reports, February 13th to 27th 1. Refers to sustained in-country transmission, not linked to epicenter of outbreak Wuhan or affected travelers from affected regions Daily incremental reported cases Count Japan Italy SingaporeSouth Korea Iran The government raised COVID- 19 alert to its highest level as confirmed cases surpass 600 Japan is under pressure to act due to the upcoming Tokyo 2020 Summer Olympics The number of cases in two northern regions is rising and several towns are under strict quarantine Singaporean Prime Minister Lee fears that the coronavirus could bring a recession Iran health officials are working to identify source of outbreak and have asked for limits on mass gatherings in affected areas Measures implemented by the South Korean government Closure of schools Reduced travel operations Rapid response team for cluster investigation e.g., linked to a religious group Measures implemented by the Japanese government Travel restrictions Postponing preparations for the Tokyo 2020 Summer Olympics e.g., Volunteer training Measures implemented by the Italian government Schools and universities closed Public Events stopped e.g., Venice carnival Towns under full quarantine with curfew Measures implemented by the Singaporean government Travel restrictions e.g., air borders closed with mainland China School policies implemented e.g., no assemblies Policies to limit profiteering in place e.g., price increase of surgical masks Measures implemented by the Iran government Schools, universities and cultural centers closed Surrounding countries responded with border closure e.g., Armenia, Afghanistan, Iraq Reported deaths22Reported deaths0Reported deaths12Reported deaths3Reported deaths13 141 Reported cases in the last 14 days 43 Reported cases in the last 14 days 397 Reported cases in the last 14 days 157 Reported cases in the last 14 days 1738 Reported cases in the last 14 days Reported confirmed cases141 Reported confirmed cases93 Reported confirmed cases400 Reported confirmed cases186 Reported confirmed cases1766 518 411 732 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 18 19 20 21 22 439 23 24 2625 27 220 241 394 459 China Ex-China Example of countries with confirmed community transmission1 Start of global new reported cases beginning to outpace China reported cases Towns in quarantine 250 reported cases 100-249 reported cases 50-99 reported cases 10-49 reported cases 10 reported cases Reported cases, number unclear McKinsey and Company 8 There are now 4 established COVID-19 transmission compls to monitor globally A complex combines confirmed community transmission with tough-to-prevent people movement CURRENT AS OF FEBRUARY 27, 2020 Four compls around the world where COVID-19 is now confirmed. Deep economic integration and regular human and material movements mean that it will be tough to limit virus propagation within these compls East Asia complex Early propagation Multiple countries with strong health care systems are seeing sustained community propagation South Korea, Japan, Singapore. Concerns around “case leakage” i.e., lack of confidence that every possible transmission has been identified and is being treated are persisting. While emergency measures are being placed, the ability of these countries to have a comprehensive quarantine is limited China complex Mature propagation Disease continues to impact Hubei, but stringent public health measures and the ability to enforce them more comprehensively has meant that cases in the rest of China are low under 100 cases/ da