麦肯锡-气候风险及应对：自然灾害和社会经济影响（英文）-2020.6-164页

C l i m a t e r i s k a n d r e s p on s e P h y sic al h a z a r d s a n d s o cio e c on om ic i m p a c t s January 2020 Climate risk and response Physical hazards and socioeconomic impacts McKinsey Global Institute Since its founding in 1990, the McKinsey Global Institute MGI has sought to develop a deeper understanding of the evolving global economy. As the business and economics research arm of McKinsey it is not commissioned by any business, government, or other institution. For further ination about MGI and to download reports for free, please visit In collaboration with McKinsey external shifts such as unpredictable geopolitical environments and climate change; and an evolving reputational risk landscape accelerated and amplified by social media. We apply deep technical expertise, extensive industry insights, and innovative analytical approaches to help organizations build risk capabilities and assets across a full range of risk areas. These include financial risk, capital and balance sheetrelated risk, nonfinancial risks including cyber, data privacy, conduct risk, and financial crime, compliance and controls, enterprise risk management and risk culture, model risk management, and crisis response and resiliencywith a center of excellence for transing risk management through the use of advanced analytics. business-functions/risk Authors Jonathan Woetzel, Shanghai Dickon Pinner, San Francisco Hamid Samandari, New York Hauke Engel, Frankfurt Mekala Krishnan, Boston Brodie Boland, Washington, DC Carter Powis, Toronto Physical hazards and socioeconomic impacts Climate risk and response January 2020 Preface McKinsey has long focused on issues of environmental sustainability, dating to client studies in the early 1970s. We developed our global greenhouse gas abatement cost curve in 2007, updated it in 2009, and have since conducted national abatement studies in countries including Brazil, China, Germany, India, Russia, Sweden, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Recent publications include Shaping climate-resilient development A framework for decision-making jointly released with the Economics of Climate Adaptation Working Group in 2009, Towards the Circular Economy joint publication with Ellen MacArthur Foundation in 2013, An integrated perspective on the future of mobility 2016, and Decarbonization of industrial sectors The next frontier 2018. The McKinsey Global Institute has likewise published reports on sustainability topics including Resource revolution Meeting the worlds energy, materials, food, and water needs 2011 and Beyond the supercycle How technology is reshaping resources 2017. In this report, we look at the physical effects of our changing climate. We explore risks today and over the next three decades and examine cases to understand the mechanisms through which physical climate change leads to increased socioeconomic risk. We also estimate the probabilities and magnitude of potential impacts. Our aim is to help in decision makers around the world so that they can better assess, adapt to, and mitigate the physical risks of climate change. This report is the product of a yearlong, cross-disciplinary research effort at McKinsey its scientists are widely published in major scientific journals, testify to lawmakers around the world, and are regularly sourced in major media outlets. ological design and results were independently reviewed by senior scientists at the University of Oxfords Environmental Change Institute to ensure impartiality and test the scientific foundation for the new analyses in this report. Final design choices and interpretation of climate hazard results were made by WHRC. In addition, WHRC scientists produced maps and data visualization for the report. We would like to thank our academic advisers, who challenged our thinking and added new insights Dr. Richard N. Cooper, Maurits C. Boas Professor of International Economics at Harvard University; Dr. CameronHepburn, director of the Economics of Sustainability ii McKinsey Global Institute Programme and professor of environmental economics at the Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment at Oxford University; and Hans-HelmutKotz, Program Director, SAFE Policy Center, Goethe University Frankfurt, and Resident Fellow, Center for European Studies at Harvard University. We would like to thank our advisory council for sharing their profound knowledge and helping to shape this report FuChengyu, er chairman of Sinopec; JohnHaley, CEO of Willis Towers Watson; XueLan, er dean of the School of Public Policy at Tsinghua University; XuLin, US China Green Energy Fund; and TracyWolstencroft, president and chief cutive officer of the National Geographic Society. We would also like to thank the Bank of England for discussions and in particular, Sarah Breeden, cutive sponsor of the Bank of Englands climate risk work, for taking the time to provide feedback on this report as well as LaurenceFink, chief cutive officer of BlackRock, and BrianDeese, global head of sustainable investing at BlackRock, for their valuable feedback. Our climate risk working group helped develop and guide our research over the year and we would like to especially thank MurrayBirt, senior ESG strategist at DWS; Dr.AndreaCastanho, Woods Hole Research Center; Dr. Michael T. Coe, director of the Tropics Program at Woods Hole Research Center; RowanDouglas, head of the capital science and policy practice at Willis Towers Watson; Dr. Philip B. Duffy, president and cutive director of Woods Hole Research Center; JonathonGascoigne, director, risk analytics at Willis Towers Watson; Dr. SpencerGlendon, senior fellow at Woods Hole Research Center; PrasadGunturi, cutive vice president at WillisRe; JeremyOppenheim, senior managing partner at SYSTEMIQ; CarlosSanchez, director, climate resilient finance at Willis Towers Watson; Dr. Christopher R. Schwalm, associate scientist and risk program director at Woods Hole Research Center; RichSorkin, CEO at Jupiter Intelligence; and Dr. ZacharyZobel, project scientist at Woods Hole Research Center. A number of organizations and individuals generously contributed their time, data, and expertise. Organizations include AECOM, Arup, Asian Development Bank, Bristol City Council, CIMMYT International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center, First Street Foundation, International Food Policy Research Institute, Jupiter Intelligence, KatRisk, SYSTEMIQ, Vietnam National University Ho Chi Minh City, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Willis Towers Watson, and World Resources Institute. Individuals who guided us include Dr. MarcoAlbani of the World Economic Forum; CharlesAndrews, senior climate expert at the Asian Development Bank; Dr. ChanningArndt, director of the environment and production technology division at IFPRI; JamesBainbridge, head of facility engineering and management at BBraun; HaydnBelfield, academic project manager at the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk at Cambridge University; CarterBrandon, senior fellow, Global Commission on Adaptation at the World Resources Institute; Dr. DanielBurillo, utilities engineer at California Energy Commission; Dr. JeremyCarew-Reid, director general at ICEM; Dr. AmyClement, University of Miami; JoyceCoffee, founder and president of Climate Resilience Consulting; ChrisCorr, chair of the Florida Council of 100; AnnCousins, head of the Bristol offices Climate Change Advisory Team at Arup; KristinaDahl, senior climate scientist at the Union of Concerned Scientists; Dr. JamesDaniell, disaster risk consultant at CATDAT and Karlsruhe Institute of Technology; MatthewEby, founder and cutive director at First Street Foundation; JessicaElengical, ESG Strategy Lead at DWS; GregFiske, senior geospatial analyst at Woods Hole Research Center; Susan Gray, global head of sustainable finance, business, and innovation, S JesseKeenan, Harvard University Center for the Environment; Dr. KindieTesfaye Fantaye, CIMMYT International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center; Dr. XiangGao, principal research scientist at Massachusetts Institute of Technology; BethGibbons, cutive director of the American Society of Adaptation Professionals; Sir CharlesGodfray, professor at Oxford University; PatrickGoodey, head of flood management in the Bristol City Council; Dr. Luke J. Harrington, Environmental Change Institute at University of Oxford; Dr. GeorgeHavenith, professor of environmental physiology and ergonomics at Loughborough University; BrianHoltemeyer, research analyst at IFPRI; DavidHodson, senior scientist at CIMMYT; AlexJennings-Howe, flood risk modeller in the Bristol City Council; iiiClimate risk and response Physical hazards and socioeconomic impacts Dr.MatthewKahn, director of the 21 st Century Cities Initiative at Johns Hopkins University; Dr. BenjaminKirtman, director of the Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies and director of the Center for Computational Science Climate and Environmental Hazards Program at the University of Miami; NishaKrishnan, climate finance associate at the World Resources Institute, Dr. MichaelLacour-Little, director of economics at Fannie Mae; Dr. JudithLedlee, project engineer at Black DagLohmann, chief cutive officer at KatRisk; RyanLewis, professor at the Center for Research on Consumer Financial Decision Making, University of Colorado Boulder; Dr. FredLubnow, director of aquatic programs at Princeton Hydro; StevenMcAlpine, head of Data Science at First Street Foundation; Manuel D. Medina, founder and managing partner of Medina Capital; Dr. IlonaOtto, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research; KennethPearson, head of engineering at BBraun; Dr. JeremyPorter, Academic Research Partner at First Street Foundation; Dr. MariaPregnolato, expert on transport system response to flooding at University of Bristol; JayRoop, deputy head of Vietnam of the Asian Development Bank; Dr. RichRuby, director of technology at Broadcom; Dr. AdamSchlosser, deputy director for science research, Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology; Dr. PaoloScussolini, Institute for Environmental Studies at the Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam; Dr. KathleenSealey, associate professor at the University of Miami; TimothySearchinger, research scholar at Princeton University; Dr. KaiSonder, head of the geographic ination system unit at CIMMYT International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center; JoelSonkin, director of resiliency at AECOM; JohnStevens, flood risk officer in the Bristol City Council; Dr. ThiVan ThuTran, Viet Nam National University Ho Chi Minh City; Dr. JamesThurlow, senior research fellow at IFPRI; Dr. KeithWiebe, senior research fellow at IFPRI; DavidWilkes, global head of flooding and er director of ThamesBarrier at Arup; Dr. BrianWright, professor at the University of California, Berkeley; and WaelYoussef, associate vice president, engineering director at AECOM. Multiple groups within McKinsey contributed their analysis and expertise, including ACRE, McKinseys center of excellence for advanced analytics in agriculture; McKinsey Center for Agricultural Transation; McKinsey Corporate Perance Analytics; Quantum Black; and MGI Economics Research. Current and er McKinsey and MGI colleagues provided valuable including KnutAlicke, AdrianaAragon, GassanAl-Kibsi, GabrielMorgan Asaftei, AndrewBadger, EdwardBarriball, EricBartels, JalilBensouda, TiagoBerni, UrsBinggeli, SaraBoettiger, DuarteBrage, MarcoBreu, KatharinaBrinck, SarahBrody, StefanBurghardt, LusCunha, EoinDaly, KaushikDas, BobbyDemissie, NicolasDenis, AntonDerkach, ValerioDilda, JonathanDimson, ThomasDormann, AndreDua, Stephan Eibl, OmarEl Hamamsy, TravisFagan, IgnacioFelix, FernandoFerrari-Haines, DavidFiocco, MatthieuFrancois, MarcusFrank, SteffenFuchs, IanGleeson, JoseLuis Gonzalez, StephanGorner, RajatGupta, ZiadHaider, HomayounHatamai, HansHelbekkmo, KimberlyHenderson, LizHilton Segel, MartinHirt, BlakeHoughton, Kia Javanmardian, SteveJohn, ConnieJordan, SeanKane, VikramKapur, JoshuaKatz, GregKelly, AdamKendall, CanKendi, SomeshKhanna, KellyKolker, TimKoller, GautamKumra, XavierLamblin, HuguesLavandier, ChrisLeech, SebastienLeger, MartinLehnich, NickLeung, AlastairLevy, JasonLu, JukkaMaksimainen, JohnMcCarthy, RyanMcCullough, ErwannMichel-Kerjan, Jean-ChristopheMieszala, JanMischke, HasanMuzaffar, MihirMysore, KerryNaidoo, SubbuNarayanaswamy, FritzNauck, JoeNgai, JanTijsNijssen, ArjunPadmanabhan, GillianPais, GuofengPan, JeremyRedenius, OccoRoelofsen, AlejandroPaniaguaRojas, RonRitter, AdamRubin, SamSamdani, SunilSanghvi, AliSankur, GrantSchlereth, MichaelSchmeink, JoaoSegorbe, KetanShah, StuartShilson, MarcusSieberer, HalldorSigurdsson, PalErikSjatil, KevinSneader, DanStephens, KurtStrovink, GernotStrube, BenSumers, HumayunTai, OzgurTanrikulu, MarcosTarnowski, Michael Tecza, ChrisThomas, OliverTonby, ChrisToomey, ChristerTryggestad, AndreasTschiesner, SelinTunguc, MagnusTyreman, RobertoUchoadePaula, RobertUhlaner, SoyokoUmeno, GregoryVainberg, CorneliusWalter, JohnWarner, OliviaWhite, BillWiseman, and CarterWood. iv McKinsey Global Institute This report was produced by MGI senior editor AnnaBernasek, editorial director PeterGumbel, production manager JuliePhilpot, designers MarisaCarder, LauraBrown, and PatrickWhite, and photographic editor NathanWilson. We also thank our colleagues DennisAlexander, TimBeacom, NienkeBeuwer, NuraFunda, CathyGui, DeadraHenderson, KristenJennings, RichardJohnson, Karen P. Jones, SimonLondon, LaurenMeling, RebecaRobboy, and JoshRosenfield for their contributions and support. As with all MGI research, this work is independent, reflects our own views, and has not been commissioned by any business, government, or other institution. We welcome your comments on the research at MGI. James Manyika Co-chairman and director, McKinsey Global Institute Senior partner, McKinsey the affected regions will continue to grow in number and size. Since the 1880s, the average global temperature has risen by about 1.1degrees Celsius with significant regional variations. This brings higher probabilities of extreme temperatures and an intensification of hazards. A changing climate in the next decade, and probably beyond, means the number and size of regions affected by substantial physical impacts will continue to grow. This will have direct effects on five socioeconomic systems livability and workability, food systems, physical assets, infrastructure services, and natural capital. The socioeconomic impacts of climate change will likely be nonlinear as system thresholds are breached and have knock-on effects. Most of the past increase in direct impact from hazards has come from greater exposure to hazards versus increases in their mean and tail intensity. In the future, hazard intensification will likely assume a greater role. Societies and systems most at risk are